The Limits of Prudence

"Do your best, prepare for the worst - then trust God to bring victory."

Proverbs 21:31; Bible The Message

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Part I – Tourism in Canaan

The twelve chosen men waited anxiously. After all, the stories about the barbaric peoples who inhabited those plains were well known. In the distance, the outlines of the magnificent landscape could be seen beneath the setting sun. Above them, the sound of the wind gusts seemed to announce the imminent departure of the expedition.

To reach the mountains and observe the region's characteristics, they would have to overcome the intervening terrain's vastness and aridity, a journey that could take several days. The group’s objective was to explore the entire area, gather information about its geography, and describe the striking traits of its inhabitants. Before confronting them, the people needed to know whether they were many or few, strong or weak. Whether they lived in villages without walls or in fortified cities. Whether that land truly was, as God had said, “a good and spacious land, a land flowing with milk and honey.”

The Return

After forty days, their endurance was tested, the land surveyed, and they returned successfully and well-informed. Their report confirmed what had been expected. The land was excellent, remarkably fertile because of the river's waters running through the valley. The splendid fruits they brought back were undeniable proof of this. But there was one detail they could not ignore: the inhabitants they encountered were extremely strong, and their cities were protected by impenetrable walls. In fact, to some of the explorers, they seemed like giants.

After reporting what they had seen, one of them stood up and cried out: “Let us rise and march! There is nothing to fear! We are strong enough to defeat them! Was it not the Lord, the God of Israel, who promised us this land?” Yet most of the group did not share the same confidence: “We stand no chance against these peoples! Their men are far stronger than we are! They will be merciless, and we will all die!”

With the danger confirmed, a deadlock emerged. Fearing for their lives, the Israelites hesitated. “Perhaps it would be better to abort the mission.” In that moment, their defeatist assumptions overshadowed every victory God had secured for them in the wilderness. Even after all the signs they had witnessed, even knowing that this was the Promised Land given by God, they cowardly refused to move forward. Their faith faltered once again.

The story continues. Moses intercedes for the people, and God graciously grants forgiveness. But unbelief carries consequences. Rules are established regarding who would enter the Promised Land. Only later would the example of faithfulness and obedience shown by Joshua and Caleb prevail, and the Israelites’ march toward the conquest of Canaan would resume.

This paraphrased passage is part of the narrative recorded in chapters 13 and 14 of the Book of Numbers, the fourth book of the Torah. There, we find the moment when twelve men are chosen to scout the land of Canaan before its occupation.

Part II – The Righteous Shall Live by Faith

There is, however, another aspect of the biblical account that only an analysis of the original text can reveal. The Hebrew expression שלח לך — Sh’lach Lechá — used by the author does not simply mean “send.” For the straightforward verb “to send,” the commonly used term, לשדר, is distinctly different. According to respected Torah scholarship, the expression Sh’lach Lechá actually means “send for yourself.”

To understand the distinction, consider the account in the Geneva Bible, Almeida-Corrigida version, Numbers 13:2:

“Send men to spy out the land of Canaan, which I am giving to the children of Israel; from each tribe of their fathers you shall send a man, every one a leader among them.”

Now compare it with the translation from the Complete Jewish Bible:

“Send for yourself men who will explore the land of Canaan, which I am giving to the people of Israel. You are to send one man from each ancestral tribe, each one a leader among them.”

At first glance, the meaning of both expressions may appear identical. Yet the distinction introduced by the Hebrew text seems to carry an important implication. In Deuteronomy 1:19–22, we discover that the idea of sending scouts to explore Canaan actually originated with the people of Israel themselves. But since the land had already been promised by God, its conquest would not depend on whether the circumstances proved favorable or adverse. See how The Message Bible paraphrases the episode:

“Then we set out from Horeb and headed for the Amorite hill country, going through that huge and frightening wilderness that you’ve had more than an eyeful of by now—all under the command of God, our God—and finally arrived at Kadesh Barnea. There I told you, “You’ve made it to the Amorite hill country that God, our God, is giving us. Look, God, your God, has placed this land as a gift before you. Go ahead and take it now. God, the God-of-Your-Fathers, promised it to you. Don’t be afraid. Don’t lose heart.” But then you all came to me and said, “Let’s send some men on ahead to scout out the land for us and bring back a report on the best route to take and the kinds of towns we can expect to find.”

Because God knew the Israelites' motives, He did not oppose their request. Yet, in His wisdom, He allowed the investigative expedition so that the Israelites’ weakness would be exposed to themselves. Who would remain faithful?

Perhaps the anxiety inherent in the situation overtook the Israelites, leading them to believe that gathering more information would provide some measure of security or comfort. But the fears and uncertainties surrounding the occupation of the new land would not be eased by a mere circumstantial analysis. On the contrary, it was through perseverance amid those very circumstances that Israel’s faith would be strengthened — and through that faith they would enter Canaan.

The Limits of Prudence

The Bible teaches us to be prudent and to make the proper preparations to achieve our goals and objectives. But prudence has its limits. Although it is useful in teaching us to act with caution and spare us from many evils, prudence cannot provide the final word in many cases. Therefore, our responsive actions should ultimately be grounded not in the analysis of facts and probabilities, but in unwavering faith in God and His promises.

As the author of the Epistle to the Hebrews teaches us:

So do not throw away your confidence; it will be richly rewarded. You need to persevere so that, when you have done the will of God, you will receive what he has promised. For in just a little while, ‘He who is coming will come and will not delay.’ And, ‘But my righteous one will live by faith. And I take no pleasure in the one who shrinks back.’ But we do not belong to those who shrink back and are destroyed, but to those who believe and are saved.” Hebrews 10:35–39, NIV.

For us Christians, the final word comes from faith — the true, solid foundation of our convictions — not from facts or circumstances. What the people of Israel had failed to realize was that taking possession of the Promised Land was meant to be an act of faith, not merely a military undertaking.

Part III – The Limited Relevance of Conjectures

We know that, to some extent, perceived reality — not reality itself — depends on the observer’s point of view. Under this premise, faith in what is observed can alter one’s response to perceived reality. Joshua and Caleb evaluated the situation not only from the perspective of circumstances but also from the perspective of faith, and because of this, they were filled with courage and honored by God with entrance into the Promised Land.

Exactly as happened with the people of Israel, our imprecise conclusions drawn from circumstances often reveal our fears, causing us to abandon legitimate purposes or compromise our moral decisions before events have even unfolded. As the poet of Stratford once said:

“Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win, by fearing to attempt.”— William Shakespeare

The imperfection of our predictions about the future — which often arise from our hasty attempts to find explanations and interconnections for every sequence of events — is beautifully illustrated by a well-known story from Chinese tradition.

The Horse and the Wise Man

It is said that a wise man owned a very special Arabian horse, coveted by all his neighbors. He also had a son to whom he wished to leave the horse as an inheritance. Everyone made offers to buy it, but he firmly refused to sell. One day, the horse ran away. The neighbors came to him and said:

— “You see… if you had sold the horse, it would have been better!”

But he replied:

— “Maybe yes… maybe not.”

Some time later, the horse returned, having become the leader of a herd of Arabian horses, bringing nineteen more horses with him. Once again, the neighbors came to the wise man and said:

— “Well, it was much better that you did not sell the horse!”

To which he answered:

— “Maybe yes… maybe not.”

Not long afterward, his son, who had begun riding the horse, suffered a fall and broke his leg in four different places. The neighbors visited him again and said:

— “See? Surely it would have been better to sell the horse!”

The wise man responded:

— “Maybe yes… maybe not.”

Some time later, a great war broke out in China, and all the young men were drafted. All the neighbors’ sons died in the war. Because of his broken leg, the wise man’s son had not been conscripted and became the only surviving young man in the region. Grieving, the neighbors once more visited the wise man and said:

— “You truly did the right thing by not selling the horse!”

The wise man, unshaken, answered once again:

— “Maybe yes… maybe not.”

“Vision” Beyond Reach

Like the wise man’s neighbors, we, too, are often hasty. It is common for us to seek a direct relationship between events in order to cope with the unpredictable. But notice that, in the story, the succession of events gradually changes what the neighbors think about whether the wise man’s initial decision not to sell his horse was right or wrong.

Yet the wise man’s attitude is not one of trying to control events. He understands that things are often not as simple as they appear. The complexity of existence and its causal interconnections demands actions grounded in conviction. Events may seem good or bad at a given moment, but our convictions, rooted in faith, are all we truly possess.

The people of Israel abandoned their convictions about the conquest of the land God had promised and gave voice to their own imagination. Once the promise was overshadowed, they shrank back from the original plan out of fear of what they might encounter ahead. Distrust and fear, weakness and desertion — together they overcame faith. Yet the righteous shall live by faith.

“Look at that man, bloated by self-importance — full of himself but empty inside. But the person who lives right before God, with sincere and steadfast faith, that one truly lives, fully alive.” Habakkuk 2:4, The Message Bible.

In the pure and simple Christian life, prudence and faith are part of the same reality and coexist without contradiction. Concerning what we can see, measure, and analyze, prudence is effective. On the other hand, for what lies beyond the eyes, beyond perception, beyond probabilities, faith is far more discerning.

Finally, it is worth mentioning the excellent and contemporary rendering that The Message Bible gives to the opening verse of chapter eleven of Hebrews:

“The fundamental fact of existence is that this trust in God, this faith, is the firm foundation under everything that makes life worth living. It is by faith that we deal with what we cannot see.”

Present-day ruins of the city of Jericho.

“By faith, the Israelites marched around the walls of Jericho for seven days, and the walls fell flat.” Hebrews 11:30; The Message Bible.