The Limits of Prudence

"Do your best, prepare for the worst - then trust God to bring victory."

Proverbs 21:31; Bible The Message

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Part I – Tourism in Canaan

The twelve chosen men waited anxiously. After all, the stories about the barbaric peoples who inhabited those plains were well known. In the distance, the outlines of the magnificent landscape were visible beneath the setting sun. Above them, the sound of the wind gusts seemed to announce the imminent departure of the expedition.

To reach the mountains and survey the region, they would have to cross miles of barren terrain—a journey that could take several days. The group’s objective was to explore the entire area, gather information about its geography, and describe the striking traits of its inhabitants. Before advancing into Canaan, the people were to learn what awaited them in the land God had promised them—a good and spacious land, a land flowing with milk and honey.

The Return

Forty days later, weary but successful, the explorers returned. They had crossed the land from south to north, examined its cities, and gathered everything Moses had requested. Their report confirmed what had been expected. The land was excellent, remarkably fertile because of the river's waters running through the valley. The splendid fruits they brought back were undeniable proof of this. But there was one detail they could not ignore: the inhabitants they encountered were extremely strong, and their cities were protected by impenetrable walls. In fact, to some of the explorers, they seemed like giants.

After reporting what they had seen, one of them stood up and cried out: “Let us rise and march! There is nothing to fear! We are strong enough to defeat them! Was it not the Lord, the God of Israel, who promised us this land?” Yet most of the group did not share the same confidence: “We stand no chance against these people! Their men are far stronger than we are! They will be merciless, and we will all die!”

With the danger confirmed, a deadlock emerged. Fearing for their lives, the Israelites hesitated. “Perhaps it would be better to abort the mission.” In that moment, their defeatist assumptions overshadowed every victory God had secured for them in the wilderness. Even after all the signs they had witnessed, even knowing that this was the Promised Land given by God, they refused to move forward. Their faith faltered once again.

The story continues. Moses intercedes for the people, and God graciously grants forgiveness. But unbelief carries consequences. Rules are established regarding who would enter the Promised Land. Only later would the example of faithfulness and obedience shown by Joshua and Caleb prevail, and the Israelites’ march toward the conquest of Canaan would resume.

This paraphrased passage is part of the narrative recorded in chapters 13 and 14 of the Book of Numbers, the fourth book of the Torah. There, we find the moment when twelve men are chosen to scout the land of Canaan before its occupation.

Part II – The Righteous Shall Live by Faith

One detail of the biblical narrative often goes unnoticed. At first glance, God appears to be the one who initiates the mission to explore Canaan. Yet a later passage provides an important clarification. In Deuteronomy 1:19–22, Moses explains that the proposal to send scouts did not originate with God but with the people themselves. They wanted men to go ahead, explore the land, and report on the best route to take and the cities they would encounter.

God did not oppose their request. Instead, He allowed the expedition to proceed. The land had already been promised, and its possession would not ultimately depend on favorable circumstances. Yet God permitted the reconnaissance, knowing that it would reveal what was truly in the hearts of His people. Who would trust His promise, and who would allow fear to prevail?

But since the land had already been promised by God, its conquest would not depend on whether the circumstances proved favorable or adverse. See how The Message Bible paraphrases the episode:

“Then we set out from Horeb and headed for the Amorite hill country, going through that huge and frightening wilderness that you’ve had more than an eyeful of by now—all under the command of God, our God—and finally arrived at Kadesh Barnea. There I told you, “You’ve made it to the Amorite hill country that God, our God, is giving us. Look, God, your God, has placed this land as a gift before you. Go ahead and take it now. God, the God-of-Your-Fathers, promised it to you. Don’t be afraid. Don’t lose heart.” But then you all came to me and said, “Let’s send some men on ahead to scout out the land for us and bring back a report on the best route to take and the kinds of towns we can expect to find.”

Perhaps the anxiety inherent in the situation overtook the Israelites, leading them to believe that gathering more information would give them a greater sense of security. But the fears and uncertainties surrounding the occupation of the new land would not be eased by a mere circumstantial analysis. On the contrary, it was through perseverance amid those very circumstances that Israel’s faith would be strengthened — and through that faith they would enter Canaan.

The Limits of Prudence

The Bible teaches us to be prudent and to make the proper preparations to achieve our goals and objectives. But prudence has its limits. Although it is useful in teaching us to act with caution and spare us from many evils, prudence cannot provide the final word in many cases. Therefore, although we should carefully weigh facts and probabilities, our final decisions must ultimately rest on faith in God and His promises.

As the author of the Epistle to the Hebrews teaches us:

So do not throw away your confidence; it will be richly rewarded. You need to persevere so that, when you have done the will of God, you will receive what he has promised. For in just a little while, ‘He who is coming will come and will not delay.’ And, ‘But my righteous one will live by faith. And I take no pleasure in the one who shrinks back.’ But we do not belong to those who shrink back and are destroyed, but to those who believe and are saved.” Hebrews 10:35–39, NIV.

For us Christians, the final word comes from faith — the true, solid foundation of our convictions — not from facts or circumstances. What the people of Israel had failed to realize was that taking possession of the Promised Land was meant to be an act of faith, not merely a military undertaking.

Part III – The Limited Relevance of Conjectures

We rarely respond to events themselves. More often, we respond to our interpretation of them. The same circumstances can produce fear in one person and courage in another. Joshua and Caleb looked at Canaan through the lens of God's promise, while the other spies looked at it through the lens of fear.

Exactly as happened with the people of Israel, our imprecise conclusions drawn from circumstances often reveal our fears, causing us to abandon legitimate purposes or compromise our moral decisions before events have even unfolded. As the poet of Stratford once said:

“Our doubts are traitors, and make us lose the good we oft might win, by fearing to attempt.”— William Shakespeare

The imperfection of our predictions about the future — which often arise from our hasty attempts to find explanations and interconnections for every sequence of events — is beautifully illustrated by a well-known story from Chinese tradition.

The Horse and the Wise Man

There is an old Chinese story about a wise man who owned a magnificent Arabian horse, admired and desired by all his neighbors. He also had a son and hoped to leave the horse to him as an inheritance. Many people offered to buy it, but he always refused.

One day, the horse escaped. When the neighbors heard what had happened, they came to him and said:

— “What a misfortune! If only you had sold the horse, things would have turned out better.”

But the wise man simply replied:

— “Maybe yes… maybe not.”

Some time later, the horse returned, bringing with it a herd of nineteen other Arabian horses. Once again, the neighbors gathered around him and said:

— “You were right not to sell the horse! This has turned out wonderfully.”

The wise man answered:

— “Maybe yes… maybe not.”

A few days later, while riding one of the horses, his son fell and severely injured his leg, breaking it in several places. The neighbors came once again and said:

— “Now you can see that keeping the horse was a mistake. If you had sold it, this would never have happened.”

The wise man calmly replied:

— “Maybe yes… maybe not.”

Not long afterward, a great war broke out in China, and all the young men in the region were called to fight. One by one, the neighbors' sons were taken away and eventually lost their lives in battle. Because of his injured leg, the wise man's son was spared from conscription and was the only young man from the village who survived.

Filled with grief, the neighbors returned to the wise man and said:

— “You were truly blessed. It was the right decision not to sell the horse.”

The wise man looked at them and gave the same answer he had given from the beginning:

— “Maybe yes… maybe not.”

“Vision” Beyond Reach

Like the wise man’s neighbors, we, too, are often hasty. It is common for us to seek a direct relationship between events in order to cope with the unpredictable. But notice that, in the story, the succession of events gradually changes what the neighbors think about whether the wise man’s initial decision not to sell his horse was right or wrong.

Yet the wise man’s attitude is not one of trying to control events. He understands that things are often not as simple as they appear. The complexity of existence and its causal interconnections demands actions grounded in conviction. Events may seem good or bad at a given moment, but our convictions, rooted in faith, are all we truly possess.

The people of Israel abandoned their convictions about the conquest of the land God had promised and gave voice to their own imagination. Once the promise was overshadowed, they shrank back from the original plan out of fear of what they might encounter ahead. Distrust and fear, weakness and desertion — together they overcame faith. Yet the righteous shall live by faith.

“Look at that man, bloated by self-importance — full of himself but empty inside. But the person who lives right before God, with sincere and steadfast faith, that one truly lives, fully alive.” Habakkuk 2:4, The Message Bible.

In the pure and simple Christian life, prudence and faith are part of the same reality and coexist without contradiction. Where our knowledge ends—beyond what we can see, measure, or calculate—faith sees farther than prudence ever can.

Finally, it is worth mentioning the excellent and contemporary rendering that The Message Bible gives to the opening verse of chapter eleven of Hebrews:

“The fundamental fact of existence is that this trust in God, this faith, is the firm foundation under everything that makes life worth living. It is by faith that we deal with what we cannot see.”

Present-day ruins of the city of Jericho.

“By faith, the Israelites marched around the walls of Jericho for seven days, and the walls fell flat.” Hebrews 11:30; The Message Bible.

The spies entered Canaan carrying the same eyes, the same maps, and the same information. What distinguished Joshua and Caleb was not superior knowledge but greater trust. They saw the same obstacles, yet interpreted them in light of God's promise rather than their own fears. The challenge remains the same for us today. Prudence invites us to prepare wisely, but faith calls us to obey even when the outcome cannot yet be seen.